PRESS RELEASE
Washington, D.C., September 4, 2002:
Today The Nixon Center released a policy report entitled U.S.-China Relations in a Post-September 11th World, authored by David M. Lampton and Richard Daniel Ewing.*
"This important paper provides essential insight into what is likely to be one of America’s most important strategic relations in the 21st century. …U.S.-China Relations in a Post-September 11th World is a powerful attempt to advance American interests in an increasingly dangerous international environment," writes Nixon Center President Dimitri Simes, in his introductory note to the report.
Based on
extensive research, this report explains how the U.S.-China relationship has
reached its present state, what we can expect in terms of Chinese cooperation in
the war against terror and a possible expansion of that effort into Iraq, and
what Presidents Bush and Jiang can accomplish when they get together next month
in Crawford, Texas. Among the study’s principal findings are the following:
- The Chinese elite is deeply enmeshed in domestic challenges and is not looking to become embroiled in conflicts abroad. This means not only that Beijing will make efforts to avoid conflict with the United States and in the Taiwan Strait, but also that Beijing is leery of supporting open-ended conflict in Iraq or elsewhere that might reduce focus on China’s domestic challenges.
- Misgivings about Iraq aside, Beijing does not wish to be isolated on this issue and The People’s Republic of China (PRC) will not single-handedly seek to obstruct a possible U.S. effort to win at least acquiescence for a use of force from the U.N. Security Council.
- The Chinese wish to make next month’s summit with George Bush in Crawford a success and are likely to make forthcoming moves on the proliferation front; indeed, these moves began last week.
- The Chinese
are becoming progressively more confident that the process of economic and
cultural integration across the Taiwan Strait is providing a positive
dynamic for eventual reunification (of some sort) and therefore have pulled
back from earlier threats to establish a specific timetable for negotiations
between Beijing and Taipei. However, the PRC will continue to upgrade its
military options simultaneously.
In addition to these findings, the study makes several recommendations for U.S. policy, among which are:
- The Bush Administration should quit pursuing what the authors view as a self-contradictory policy of asking for Beijing’s cooperation on U.S. security priorities at the same time that it challenges China on its primary security concern—Taiwan. It is neither consistent with Taiwan’s security interests, nor consistent with U.S. strategic interests, to continue pushing the envelope on Taiwan policy.
- In the context of the upcoming Bush-Jiang summit, the two sides should give further impetus to the restoration of military-to-military ties curtailed after last year’s collision of a Chinese fighter with the U.S. EP-3 aircraft. President Bush needs, once again, to make his intentions clear to the Pentagon. Engagement with China’s military leadership is only part of a larger challenge of engaging with China’s new, "Fourth and Fifth Generations" of civilian leadership. The Administration needs a coherent strategy in this regard.
- The National Security Council ought to play a stronger role in bringing order and consistency to the President’s China policy. This task would be facilitated by a presidential address on China policy in connection with the upcoming Bush-Jiang summit.
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*David M. Lampton is director of China Studies at The Nixon Center and Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. His most recent book is, Same Bed, Different Dreams: Managing U.S.-China Relations 1989-2000 (University of California Press, 2001). Richard Daniel Ewing, formerly assistant director of the China Studies Program at The Nixon Center, is a graduate of Johns Hopkins-SAIS and currently is enrolled at the Wharton School in Philadelphia.
