Arafat
and Sharon: They Still Need Each Other
October 13, 2002
On September 11th Yasser Arafat had to accept the resignation of his entire cabinet rather than face a vote from the Palestinian Legislature which would have called for their dismissal. This was a humiliating decision and, at the time, indicated the low esteem with which Arafat was held by many of his erstwhile supporters. One of the few encouraging signs on the Palestinian front these past months has been the growing demands for reforms by the Palestinians themselves. They are tired of the corruption, nepotism, inefficiency and futility of Arafat’s rule. The more thoughtful members of the Palestinian elite have long realized that violence against Israeli citizens is counterproductive and has brought them nothing but misery. Now ordinary Palestinians are beginning to share this perspective. It is clear that while Arafat may survive politically in some capacity or another, his days as an effective leader for positive change leading to the creation of a Palestinian state are over. World leaders, including many Arab leaders, have realized that once the U.S. government decided it would no longer negotiate directly with Arafat there was little point in going against the wishes of the sole superpower on this issue.
Nevertheless, as the recent Israeli military efforts to isolate Arafat in his compound at Ramallah have demonstrated, he remains a potent symbol of Palestinian nationalism and must therefore be handled with care. Israel’s abrupt ending of the latest siege of his diminished headquarters shows that even the Israeli government is aware of the limits with which it can physically threaten Arafat. Sharon’s cabinet is bitterly divided as to what to do about Arafat in event of another terrorist attack, especially if it is a "megaterrorist" event that causes large numbers of casualties. Hardliners, including Ariel Sharon, want to exile him thereby weakening the remaining remnants of the Palestinian Authority. They believe they will achieve this by keeping Arafat as a symbol of the Palestinian movement but isolating him in Tunis or some other low profile Arab country. So long as Arafat is alive it will be difficult for his leadership to be ended or superceded. He will still be able to lash out against Israel from exile. But he will be irrelevant to what happens in the occupied territories.
The concern of the Israeli right wing is that if Arafat were killed or removed from power constitutionally by the Palestinians themselves in an open and democratic manner Israel would have to deal with a new, better leadership that would have the support of the United States and the EU. Depending upon the security situation, the United States would then push for the resumption of a political dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians. Sharon is well aware that while the Bush administration is overly friendly to Israel, it has also gone further than any other American administration in calling for a Palestinian state in most of the areas occupied by Israel in 1967.
Since much of Sharon’s support comes from Israelis who are opposed to such a two state solution, he will do anything in his power to put off the day of reckoning when, as he has said, "painful choices" will have to be taken. So long as anti-Israeli terrorism continues and the specter of crisis with Iraq looms large, Sharon will be secure as a "wartime" Prime Minister. But the moment violence becomes more manageable and the Palestinians embrace new leaders and the U.S. begins to focus once more on solving the Palestinian problem, Sharon’s days will be numbered. He was elected by an overwhelming majority of Israelis in direct response to a terror campaign blessed by Yasser Arafat. He could be replaced by a more moderate Israeli leader once Arafat is gone. Ironically, Arafat and Sharon who hate each other, nevertheless, still need each other.
