Europe and the Middle East
By Geoffrey
Kemp
From the May 12, 2002 edition of Al-Ittihad
In the past few week a new "Quartet" of international actors has emerged to take initiatives to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict. Consisting of the U.S., the European Union, the UN, and Russia, the "Quartet" has called for a summit meeting of key players later this summer. The precise time, place, agenda, mission, and participants have yet to be determined, but the fact that a meeting has been proposed itself is significant. The EU, in particular, is under considerable pressure from its own members to play a more active role. The U.S., while wary of some of the EU positions, wants to involve the Europeans more especially since they have good relations with the Arab states and are potentially a vital component of any coalition to oust Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq.
The European role in the Middle East is ambiguous and complicated. One must distinguish between the attitude and behavior of individual European countries. These differ widely. Germany, Britain and the Netherlands have generally been supportive of Israel, while France, Italy, Spain, and Greece have shown more sympathy for the Palestinians. However, the position of the European Union on foreign policy issues requires consensus. Increasingly the EU has been seen as a balancer to offset pro-Israel sentiments in the United States. The EU has influence in the Arab world, but little in Israel. Herein lies the problem. Until the Israelis are prepared to take seriously what the EU says and does, it will not be able to play a major role in the tough political negotiations ahead. On the economic front the EU is more important, particularly in providing support for the Palestinians and, alternatively, threatening to withhold valuable trade concessions to Israel. But the EU is unlikely to ever sanction Israel because Germany would almost certainly veto such an action.
The EU’s concern with the Middle East is linked by geography, history, and economics. The importance of geography is clear. You can drive an automobile from the north of the UK to Syria for most of the way on good highways. A number of important natural gas pipelines link North Africa and South Europe and provide vital energy supplies. Illegal immigration from the greater Middle East and beyond has become a source of growing tension in several European countries, notably France, Spain, and Italy. The drug traffic from Afghanistan via Iran and Turkey is primarily destined for markets in Europe. Most of Europe’s oil comes from the Middle East.
Historically the key European countries have their own unique relationships in the Middle East. Spain, France, Italy, and Britain all had key colonial assets in the region. Germany has had a long standing special relationship with Turkey since the 19th century and the Nordic countries have played a major role in UN peacekeeping and other peacemaking actions between Israel and the Arabs.
Today the U.S. and Europe find themselves in agreement about the need to defeat al Qaeda but have different perspectives on the Palestinian crisis, Iraq, and Iran. The Europeans were strongly supportive of the U.S. following the September 11th attacks and presently have about as many troops in Afghanistan as the United States. However, since President Bush’s "axis of evil" speech on January 29th, Europeans have distanced themselves from U.S. rhetoric. Even Britain’s Tony Blair, who has been the most supportive European of the U.S. war against terrorism, has voiced doubts about the action and tenor of recent American policy, especially with regards to its handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the proposed confrontation with Iraq. Blair’s support for Bush is particularly important in the context of Iraq policy. The Prime Minister seems to be ahead of his own party when it comes to this question. In order to be certain that he can present a watertight case for the use of force against Iraq, Blair needs the U.S. to explore all possible diplomatic solutions to the key problem, namely Iraq’s weapons programs, before supporting force. If and when this were to happen, Blair would be very influential in bringing other Europeans on board, if not to participate, then certainly not to make trouble in event of such action. And with Europe quiescence it will be easier to get moderate Arab, Turkish, and Russian support.
The United States and Europe must work together on a myriad of Middle East issues. The European role, while not as vital as that of the United States, is nevertheless important. The Europeans will make sure the United States understands this reality in the weeks and months to come. If the Europeans and the United States can structure a common policy towards the key problems, it will have a powerful impact on Arab, Israeli, and Iranian attitudes and behaviors. This summer’s summit meeting will provide a key test for transatlantic cooperation.
