Can Colin Powell Survive?
By Geoffrey
Kemp
From the May 5, 2002 edition of Al-Ittihad
From the moment he was named Secretary of State in January 2001, Colin Powell has been in trouble with some of the strongest supporters of President Bush. Hardline neoconservatives have always regarded him as too reluctant to use military force to assert American interests. They note he was initially skeptical about the wisdom of expelling Iraq from Kuwait in 1990-91. They blame him as one of the advocates for a quick end to the ground war in February 1991 and for arguing against carrying the war to Baghdad to overturn the Saddam Hussein regime. Today they believe Powell and most of his State Department colleagues are reluctant to use U.S. muscle and prefer to use diplomacy on a range of sensitive issues from relations with China to the continuing problem of Iraq. In the past few weeks they have complained that he has been too "evenhanded" on the Arab-Israeli conflict and has saved Yasser Arafat from expulsion by the Israelis.
On the domestic front, Christian right wing supporters of Bush believe Powell’s social agenda is far too liberal. He supports abortion and is in favor of "affirmative action" to redeem past wrongs to America’s black population. His critics argue that his views on domestic politics are much more akin to those of the Democrats and the only reason he can get away with such views is because he is an African-American and revered as an American hero.
In recent months, culminating with a domestic debate over his efforts at Arab-Israeli diplomacy in mid-April, a number of critics have begun to suggest that it may be time for him to leave or, alternatively, for the President to fire him. They are worried that Powell, with his many bureaucratic skills, will be able to delay military activity against Iraq indefinitely while giving priority to resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict, rebuilding Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban and sustaining the broad based coalition he helped put together to destroy the remnants of Al Qaeda.
What are the chances that Bush would ever fire Colin Powell? Absent a major public dispute between the two, it’s unlikely the President would ever take this step. The political costs would be extraordinarily high. Powell is widely respected in the U.S. Senate and is regarded by most U.S. allies, particularly those in Europe, as the most level headed and most internationalist of the President’s cabinet. Powell’s departure would create a firestorm for the President and would provide welcome ammunition for the Democrats who are beginning to snipe at Bush’s domestic program and believe that his sky high approval ratings in opinion polls will eventually fall. With congressional elections in November, the last thing Bush needs is a major crisis over the most famous and admired member of his cabinet.
There remains the possibility that Powell himself could resign out of frustration and humiliation if he is unable to persuade the President to back his practical and internationalist approach to American foreign policy. He may just tire of endless bureaucratic battles with his opponents, primarily civilians in the Pentagon and several adviser’s in the Vice President’ office. What is not known in these internecine battles is where exactly the President’s National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice stands. She is very close to the President who seems to trust her judgment. Instinctively, she is more hawkish than Powell, but she has good political sense and understands that, on balance, Powell is a huge asset to the Bush administration. His departure under acrimonious circumstances would weaken this Presidency.
If this is the case, Bush will have to stand by Powell as he attempts to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict in a way that is acceptable to the parties, including the key Arab states. This will invariably mean criticism from some of Israel’s most hardline supporters. However, many within the American Jewish community will support Powell. Thus, an administration that came into office not wanting to become embroiled in the Arab-Israeli conflict now faces its most difficult test on this problem as greater Presidential involvement becomes inevitable.
