Russia, China, and the Middle East
By Geoffrey
Kemp
From the March 31, 2002 edition of Al-Ittihad
At the height of the Cold War fear of the Soviet Union was, to a large degree, responsible for key U.S. foreign policy decisions concerning the Middle East. These included U.S. opposition to the 1956 attack on Egypt by Britain, France, and Israel; U.S. support for the Baghdad Pact and later the CENTO Treaty; U.S. military intervention in Lebanon in 1958; and development of close military relations with Iran. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1980 and its extensive military sales to Syria, Iraq, and Libya further exacerbated American fears of Moscow’s long term Middle East ambitions. In response, the U.S. increased military cooperation with the Gulf allies, Egypt, and Israel.
In 1990 the dynamics changed. The Soviet government under Mikhail Gorbachev supported the U.S. led coalition against Saddam Hussein in 1990-91 – despite some last minute efforts to stop the war. It also briefly became co-chairman of the Madrid Peace Conference in the fall of 1991 just before the Soviet Union collapsed.
Today, following September 11th, 2001 attacks on the United States, Russia is on the verge of significant new changes in its policy. It has reached an agreement with the U.S. at the UN Security Council to modify the sanctions regime against Iraq. Eventually it may well support, albeit reluctantly, U.S. efforts to oust Saddam Hussein. It could even reach an agreement with the United States on curbing certain weapons supplies to Iran and the provision of nuclear materials unrelated to the Bushehr nuclear reactor project. But perhaps most important, it could eventually challenge the key Gulf oil producers as a major oil supplier to the West and East Asia.
The renaissance of the Russian oil industry is attracting a lot of attention. Its oil production has grown by over one million barrels per day over the past two years and the Russian oil industry has undertaken major reforms and modernization. Russian oil companies such as Lukoil now have international clout and influence on par with the big Western companies such as Shell, Exxon, and BP. The ability of the Putin government to control the behavior of Russian oil companies may be less than it used to be, though both share common interests in increasing Russia’s share of the export market and expanding development of Russian oil fields and those of their neighbors, particularly Kazakhstan.
There is a fierce debate among oil analysts as to how serious the long run challenge of Russia and the other producers in the former Soviet Union will be to OPEC. Much will depend upon oil prices and what happens to Iraq. In some respects, falling oil prices work to the advantage of the Gulf states because the production costs are lower. A new regime in Baghdad could see Iraq eventually reemerge as a significant supplier. However whatever happens, Russia is now an oil power to be reckoned with. If Russia continues to believe its economic interests coincide with developing stable energy supply relationships with Europe and East Asian countries, its leaders will be more cooperative on an array of political issues which, in the past, have led to tensions with Europe, the United States, and Japan.
Ironically, while Russia expands its oil exports over the coming years, the other great Asian land power, China, will become a major oil importer. According to estimates by the Baker Institute at Rice University, China will need to import up to 3 million barrels per day by 2010. Much of this oil will have to come from the Middle East. China’s need for oil is bound to influence its foreign policy and lead it to develop close relations with key supplier regimes in the Middle East. It will mean China has an increasing interest in the stability of the Middle East and therefore should be more cooperative and support efforts to prevent conflict and chaos. But it also means China will have a more assertive voice on matters to do with regional politics. Some analysts fear China will sell more arms to the Middle East countries to pay for oil imports.
Russia and China, for different reasons, now have to be regarded as key players in the global energy equation. This could change if there is a world wide economic recession or political upheaval in either country. But it would be wise to assume these two major powers will have growing influence on Middle East geopolitics, a reality that both the region and the United States should take note of.
