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Rare Chance to Rethink Our Relationships
By Geoffrey Kemp
Reprinted from the September 21, 2001 edition of The Daily Telegraph.
IF President Bush is adroit and keeps his eye on strategic objectives, he will balance calls for early retribution with the need to rid the world of the long-term threats posed by the terrorist suspect Osama bin Laden and his cohorts.
The president should not rule out any military alternatives at this point, including a massive response. However, he must also continue to nurture and exploit what could be an opportunity to realign US relationships with recalcitrant states, emphasising that America will judge its future relations based on deeds, not words.
Policy towards Pakistan, Iran, Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority could change. We can be sure that these countries and the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, are aware of the uniqueness of the moment and the risks and opportunities it poses for them.
Pakistan offers America two critical ingredients at this time: geography and military intelligence. Without the use of Pakistan bases and the support of its intelligence forces, finding bin Laden will be next to impossible.
Furthermore, Pakistan's closing of its border will eventually pose severe problems for the Taliban as the key opposition group, the Northern Alliance, musters forces and probably arms from its northern neighbours, especially Russia and possibly America.
Yet the Pakistani president, Pervaiz Musharraf, is taking a huge gamble. The consequences if his actions fail could be dangerous for the rest of the world.
Pakistan is a fully fledged nuclear power. If it descends into civil war and chaos as a result of a crisis with Afghanistan, the security of its nuclear facilities cannot be taken for granted. India would not sit idly by.
The prospects that nuclear material could be captured by pro-Taliban forces must be considered. There is the possibility that such material would threaten many countries, particularly Israel and the West.
America must therefore think through very carefully how it will need to support Pakistan and Gen Musharraf if things get really tough within his country. He will need economic, political and maybe military backing even if bin Laden is captured or killed. Iran poses another set of dilemmas in this new strategic environment. Nominally the US State Department designates it as the country most involved in state-sponsored terrorism. Yet it is the victim of terrorism itself from both Afghanistan and Iraq.
Iran has a visceral dislike for the Taliban and will not weep if bin Laden and Afghanistan are toppled by American military force. It will not support America, but it is unlikely to oppose it in any deliberate way.
Nevertheless this is an opportunity for Iran to rethink its relationship with America and face up to its own culpability in the terrorist arena. For America the most immediate problem with Iran is its continued financial, political and military support for violent operations against Israel and its hosting of groups determined to use force to destroy moves towards peace.
This activity will have to be drastically curtailed as part of any realignment, but for this to happen America must offer carrots as well as sticks. Removing sanctions would be a possibility.
Iran has extraordinarily close ties to the extremist group Hizbollah which it will not relinquish, but it may be more willing to curtail arms supplies and stop operations in support of Islamic Jihad and Hamas, particularly if Mr Arafat and the Israelis reopen talks.
Bringing Iran into a new alignment with America would have profound consequences in the region. It would further isolate Iraq and make it more difficult for the Taliban to survive.
Syria and Lebanon each pose different opportunities and problems for US diplomacy. Both have offered to join the anti-terrorism alliance yet both harbour terrorist groups.
These activities must be ended, including the use of the bases in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, which Syria controls. Lebanon could redeem itself if it were to deploy its army along the entire border with Israel, thereby removing Hizbollah from the front line.
As for Mr Arafat, this is truly a moment of truth for him. Either he is finally willing to negotiate a compromise settlement with Israel, or he will find himself with even less support in America.
The author is director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, Washington DC.
