April 5, 2001
REALITY CHECK: Just a Bump in the Road?
by Mark T. Fung
The rising tension between the United States and China over the fate of 24 American crew members and their EP-3 surveillance plane seems to have reached the boiling point. China has demanded an apology from the United States for the loss of a Chinese F-8 pilot presumed dead following a mid-air collision with the U.S. plane. For its part, Washington insists that the U.S. is not to blame for the accident and will not apologize, though Secretary of State Powell and President Bush have expressed American regret. Will this situation unravel and irreparably damage U.S.-China relations? Certainly, it has the potential of a major rift, but the U.S. and China have weathered such trying situations before.
The key to minimizing the consequences of the incident is resolving it fairly quickly, which in turn necessitates understanding Beijing's perspective. Although Washington has a substantially different view of the last decade, some earlier events have contributed significantly to shaping China's view of the bilateral relationship.
For example, Beijing viewed the U.S. sale of 150 F-16 jet fighters to Taiwan in 1992, as a direct contravention of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act. China issued a formal protest, but a new president, Bill Clinton, meant another chance at mending U.S.-China relations.
By 1993, China had aspirations to host the 2000 Olympics. After all, Tiananmen was far behind them, China believed, and the leaders were ready to burnish their international image. Symbolism continues to resonate strongly both socially and politically in China; it would have been the perfect segue to the 21st century. But, the International Olympic Committee thought otherwise and selected Australia. Incensed, Beijing accused the U.S. of pressuring the Committee members to deny China its place in history. This dispensation was not be for China and Sydney was selected instead. This struck at the hearts of ordinary men and women in China—it was seen as a direct affront to their nationalist pride.
Also in 1993, a Chinese-registered ship was tracked and then boarded by the U.S. Navy in international waters under the suspicion that it was transporting poison gas to Iran. However, no evidence was found on the ship. Beijing demanded an apology, the U.S. refused to apologize and argued that the evidence was disposed of before the vessel was boarded. From China’s perspective, this event was emblematic of not-so-benign American efforts at hegemony.
In 1996, the U.S. dispatched two carrier battle groups to the Taiwan Straits during China’s missile tests off the shores of Taiwan. This quickly came to pass as a hotline was established after the summit between Presidents Clinton and Jiang Zemin. However, the accidental U.S. bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999 was a defining moment in contemporary Chinese nationalism. Young men and women in China rose in protest in the streets of Beijing with the implicit support of the government. Many Americans may recall the stark photo of then U.S. Ambassador to China, James Sasser, standing alone on the second floor of the U.S. Embassy, staring out and assessing the damage done by objects hurtled at the main building of the American compound. Despite the turmoil, China and the U.S. managed to return to the negotiating table within four months to finalize the accession protocol for China into the World Trade Organization.
This year, a new U.S. administration required a fresh face and China installed a new ambassador, Yang Jiechi, who has had a long relationship as an interlocutor with the Bush family during their official trips to China. But in March 2001, the White House requested that China’s Vice Premier, Qian Qichen, reschedule his planned visit to Washington because Japan’s Prime Minister would be coming to visit in March during the same week. The Bush Administration has also redefined its relationship with China from one of "strategic partnership" as used during the Clinton Administration to "strategic competitor." As a result, China’s leadership, because it is divided on this issue internally, is being heavily swayed by public opinion urging firmness on this issue. Similarly, in the U.S., polls indicate that Americans overwhelmingly want this issue resolved but without having to issue an apology.
This is the perspective from which the top Chinese leaders will approach this latest incident. These events can be considered growing pains—as both China and the U.S. continue to grow in ways that Mao and Nixon perhaps never envisioned.
But there is a real danger that the present situation may take longer for the relationship to recuperate and U.S.-China relations may be aggravated further. There is already talk that the Congress is contemplating several steps including: severance of military-to-military ties with China, a resolution to block China’s hosting of the 2008 Olympics, and closer military ties with Taiwan.
Once the EP-3 incident is resolved, and it will be resolved, with the U.S. crew safely returned home, we will enter the "post-Hainan" period between the U.S. and China. Whether this proves to be a long, frigid period in U.S.-China relations, or merely a bump in the road depends on how long the situation continues. Should this matter come to a resolution within the next week or two, it will be regarded as a jarring, but nevertheless, bump in the road. Should it continue to fester, and manage to keep China analysts busy around the clock, then its momentum will generate undesirable self-fulfilling prophesies.
(Mark
Fung is Research Fellow in Chinese Studies at the Center.)
