April
30, 2002
REALITY
CHECK: Getting
to Know Hu Jintao
by Dan Ewing
The U.S. visit of Chinese Vice President Hu Jintao this week is not driven by any particular issue, but it could be the most important meeting between American and Chinese leaders since Deng Xiaoping came to Washington in 1979. Hu, China’s likely future paramount leader, began his first trip ever to the United States in Honolulu on April 27th. He will also travel to San Francisco, New York (where he will visit "Ground-Zero") and Washington, DC. For the Bush Administration, Hu’s visit is an unprecedented opportunity to learn more about this mysterious leader and to shape his perceptions of America. Hu is venturing onto new territory at an uneasy moment in U.S.-China relations. Congress and the Administration must understand that this trip may set the tone of U.S.-China relations for years to come.
Hu Jintao is widely expected to succeed Jiang Zemin as China’s leader at the upcoming 16th Congress of the CCP in October. Though Hu has been a rising star in Chinese politics, most Americans know very little about his positions on key political issues including compliance with China’s World Trade Organization commitments and foreign policy. His sparse comments on international affairs have included both recognition of the importance of U.S. relations and apprehension at what many Chinese view as American inclinations toward hegemony. This trip provides a unique opportunity to shape Hu’s impressions of America and Americans.
As future head of China, Hu Jintao will lead a nation of 1.3 billion people for the next decade or two - a crucial and potentially transformative period. The formerly introverted China is increasingly finding its national interests affected by events in other parts of the world as globalization opens the Middle Kingdom. With the world’s fastest growing large economy, a modernizing military, nuclear weapons, and a seat on the U.N. Security Council, China is expected finally to play a significant global role. The manner in which China moves onto the international stage during this period could determine whether conflict or cooperation will mark bilateral relations.
The visit will provide a chance for Hu and U.S. leaders to "get acquainted." As Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia James Kelly remarked, "We don’t know much about Mr. Hu and he doesn’t know much about us." President Bush places a premium on personal relations with world leaders, so how the two men view one another could influence relations for the majority of the coming decade.
America is coveted but dangerous political ground for Chinese politicians. Quite simply, American politics is unpredictable and difficult for the Chinese to gauge. Public opinion, protesters, Congressional initiatives, or a presidential whim can jeopardize the success of a foreign leader’s visit. Take Premier Zhu Rongji’s March 1999 visit to Washington as an example. Zhu, China’s strongest economic reformer, was hoping to secure a bilateral trade pact with Washington and was confident he could reach a deal with the Clinton Administration. However, U.S. concerns over potential Chinese espionage constrained the Clinton Administration and forced Zhu back to China empty handed. At the same time, the text of his proposal was published on U.S. government websites and read in China. Zhu’s conservative opponents in Beijing used the text as ammunition and effectively reduced Zhu’s political influence at home by criticizing his willingness to make concessions to the U.S. Although the U.S. eventually accepted Zhu’s terms months later, the damage to his political position had been done. As Zhu discovered, America can be a minefield for Chinese politicians.
Hu’s visit comes at an uneasy time for both countries. Washington and Beijing have made only limited progress improving ties since September 11. Moreover, Taiwan, the most important issue between the U.S. and China, has irritated relations. U.S. officials recently met with Taiwan’s Defense Minister, angering the Chinese, and the U.S. Congress has just launched a "Taiwan Caucus" that advocates stronger official U.S. ties with the island. Hu may deliver a tough message to U.S. officials over the handling of Taiwan.
The trip also comes at a sensitive time for Hu himself. This is the most important diplomatic effort of Hu’s official career, and it occurs in the run up to his succession bid at the Party Congress. Chinese politics is littered with prospective successors forced from power for making policy gaffes or taking too high a profile. A major misstep in America could damage Hu’s standing at home. A disastrous visit could damage him politically or even knock him out of the leadership race.
So what should the Bush Administration do? First, the administration would do well to treat Hu with all the respect due to a future Chinese head of state. U.S. officials should consider highlighting the value that America places on our relationship with China. Because he has almost no first-hand knowledge of the United States, Hu should be shown as much of America’s diversity and culture as possible on his stops in order to deepen his appreciation of the U.S., China’s most important bilateral partner. Lastly, the administration could help make the trip a success by demonstrating to Hu and to the Chinese public that he can expect productive and respectful relations with the United States. This might provide a needed boost to U.S.-China relations in the short run. If Hu and Bush do manage to start an amiable working relationship, it could help to put U.S.-China relations on the right path for years to come.
(Dan Ewing is
Assistant Director of Chinese Studies at The Nixon Center.)
