February
27, 2002
REALITY
CHECK: The Beijing Ledger: The Bush - Jiang Summit
in the Balance
by Dan Ewing
Was President Bush’s summit meeting with Chinese President Jiang Zemin in Beijing a failure? Judging by some newspaper headlines, Bush’s inability to get China’s full agreement to his non-proliferation agenda and Jiang’s cool response to comments on Iraq marred the trip as unsuccessful. Nevertheless, Bush’s visit displayed a new spirit of pragmatic realism taking hold in both capitals.
The personal dynamic between Jiang and Bush was noticeably more restrained than Clinton’s effusive 1998 performance in China. Still, even as he clearly voiced concerns over religious freedom and firmly reiterated America’s obligations towards Taiwan, Bush reigned in his criticisms enough so as not to embarrass Jiang. For his part, Jiang was personable, belting out a performance of "O Sole Mio" and dancing with both National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice and Mrs. Bush.
Progress on non-proliferation was clearly absent. Following Bush’s so-called "Axis of Evil" speech and the implicit attempt to link weapons of mass destruction with the war on terrorism, securing a detailed list of Missile Technology Control Regime related equipment to be explicitly banned for export by Beijing (thereby fulfilling commitments China made in November 2000) appeared to be high on Bush’s agenda. Though the absence of an agreement is regrettable, expectations for a conclusion to this issue during the visit were low from the beginning.
Success was elusive in other areas as well. Jiang Zemin responded distantly to Bush’s comments on Iraq. The dispute over import restrictions on American soybeans and other Genetically Modified Organisms remains unresolved. This hot topic will surely reappear during Commerce Secretary Donald Evans upcoming trip to Beijing in April.
Despite these setbacks, Bush made progress on several important fronts. To start, Bush’s speech at Qinghua University played remarkably well with Chinese audiences who appreciated his statements about China’s economic growth. Chinese also heard Bush’s personal appeal for greater religious tolerance in China. Finally, unlike President Clinton’s remarks at Beijing University four years ago, television coverage of Bush’s talk was advertised ahead of time, making it more likely that people actually watched the live broadcast.
Second, Jiang appears engaged on North Korea and may suggest to the country’s leader, Kim Jung Il, that he reopen talks with Washington. Bush’s inclusion of North Korea in the "Axis of Evil" generated controversy, most notably in South Korea and Japan where it was viewed by some as provocative and counterproductive. Though its leverage is limited, China wields the greatest influence in Pyongyang and Beijing is widely seen as having played a key role in defusing the 1994 nuclear standoff between North Korea and the United States. If Jiang does indeed push Kim to restart talks, it could turn Bush’s rhetorical power-play into a successful diplomatic maneuver.
The U.S. also made progress in establishing contact with China’s rising "Fourth Generation" leaders, set to take power gradually in the next year or so. Vice President Hu Jintao, expected to be the next President and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, has been remarkably inaccessible to foreigners, especially Americans. Yet, Bush and his advisors had the chance to meet him twice and Hu will make his first visit Washington this spring at the invitation of Vice President Cheney. This presents an opportunity to begin to forge a personal relationship with Hu before he officially takes the helm.
Lastly, the summit helped bilateral relations recover from the lows of April 2001 when the U.S. EP-3 reconnaissance plane landed on Hainan Island after colliding with and destroying a Chinese fighter jet. Since then, Bush has quietly dropped his characterization of China as a "strategic competitor" and bilateral relations have become warmer. Bush and Jiang’s meeting in October was an important step, but that discussion was focused narrowly on the war on terrorism. Last week’s summit addressed the full spectrum of bilateral issues, from bibles and missiles to soybeans and Pyongyang.
On balance, the summit was refreshingly normal. "Deliverables" may have been few, but Bush and Jiang each displayed levelheaded pragmatism. Moreover, there is reason to hope that relations will continue to improve. With Hu Jintao coming soon, Jiang Zemin scheduled to visit Washington before the October APEC Summit in Mexico, and other high level exchanges, bilateral relations will enjoy a greater degree of senior level attention (and hopefully progress) during the coming year than the last.
(Dan Ewing is
Assistant Director of Chinese Studies at The Nixon Center.)
