SUBSCRIBE TO THE NIXON CENTER EMAIL BULLETIN

ff

Taiwan is first among a growing list of problems facing China’s leadership, said Michel Oksenberg—a Senior Fellow at the Asia/Pacific Research Center of Stanford University and a senior staff member of the National Security Council during the Carter Administration—at a recent Nixon Center seminar. The election March 18 of pro-independence opposition leader Chen Shui-bian as Taiwan’s next president, Oksenberg said, is both "a danger and an opportunity" for the U.S., China, and Taiwan. The discussion, conducted March 22, was moderated by David M. Lampton, the Nixon Center's Director of Chinese Studies. Douglas Paal, the President of the Asia-Pacific Policy Center and a Bush Administration NSC staff member—acted as a commentator. The following is a summary of the program.

China’s Leadership "Muddling Through"

Mr. Lampton explained that the title of the seminar, "Is China’s Leadership Adrift?", refers to the common perception in the West that those in charge in the People’s Republic of China are "a bunch of empty suits" who lack a clear vision of where China is heading. But, Mr. Lampton noted, the leadership’s recent moves to secure China’s entry in the World Trade Organization, force the People’s Liberation Army to halt its business activities, reorganize state-owned enterprises, and tackle high-level corruption, belies this common image of central-government weakness.

Michel Oksenberg said he would not characterize the PRC leadership as adrift, but rather as "bobbing" along in a sea of enormous economic, political, and social problems. Mr. Oksenberg listed (in descending order of importance) Taiwan, leadership succession, civil-military relations, social stability, and the economy as China’s top challenges.

Taiwan

Mr. Oksenberg said that, even before Chen Shui-bian’s victory, he would have rated Taiwan as the PRC’s main problem. In the early 1990s, he noted, both Taiwan and the PRC agreed there was only one China, but both Beijing and Taipei had their own interpretations of what exactly "one China" meant. Under this formula, the two sides were able to have a series of discussions beginning in Singapore in 1993. Cross-Strait relations, however, have been on a downward slide over the last few years, he said.

The March 18 election, Mr. Oksenberg explained, is a historically significant event because it marks the end of 77 years of Kuomintang (KMT) rule, first on mainland China then on Taiwan. Chen Shui-bian’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), he observed, grew from a yearning among Taiwanese to govern themselves rather than be dominated by Japanese or mainland Chinese rulers. The election represents the final end of the KMT-Communist Party civil war and thus, he said, Chen’s victory may represent an opportunity to establish a different framework for relations between Taiwan and China. However, Mr. Oksenberg warned, any new framework cannot challenge the notion that there is only one China.

Douglas Paal agreed that the change of power in Taiwan will have dramatic and far-reaching implications. But, he said, Chen Shui-bian [who has distanced himself from the pro-independence platform of his own party and offered to travel to Beijing for talks with PRC President Jiang Zemin] has demonstrated a degree of statesmanship and pragmatism that has allayed initial fears that his victory might spark a crisis.

Both Mr. Oksenberg and Mr. Paal argued that the United States should delay any decisions to sell major weapons systems to Taiwan, such as the four AEGIS cruisers Taipei has requested. On April 24, Taiwanese officials will arrive in Washington for annual talks on weapons sales. Mr. Paal says he hopes that Chen Shui-bian himself will decide not to pursue high-profile arms purchases right now as a good will gesture toward mainland China. Mr. Oksenberg said the question of arms sales was not a yes-or-no proposition, noting that the U.S. could still provide Taiwan with some weapons while delaying a decision on the AEGIS ships [which Beijing strongly objects to because, with upgrades, they could function in an anti-missile system]. The U.S., Mr. Oksenberg argued, could begin construction of the AEGIS ships on its own expense so they could be available if needed but there would be no obligation [to transfer them to Taiwan].

Mr. Oksenberg cautioned that the U.S. does not yet know enough about the policies of the incoming Chen Shui-bian government to form a new strategy toward Taiwan. "I don’t think arms sales should precede strategy," he said, "you make arms sales after you have a strategy." The United States currently does not have a long-term plan for deterring an arms race across the Taiwan Strait, Oksenberg said.

Also, he warned, it is unclear whether Beijing really grasps how to deal with a democratic society. Mr. Oksenberg noted that it is impossible to go over the heads of voters to reach a deal, as China and Britain did when they set the terms for Hong Kong’s return. Mr. Oksenberg also explained that the United States, which has grown used to telling Taiwan what to do, is also losing its ability to dictate to Taipei as the island grows more democratic.

Jiang Zemin: Five More Years?

Mr. Paal stated that Jiang Zemin may be using the Taiwan issue to justify staying in power another five years [his term as secretary general of the CCP expires in 2002 and his stint as state president ends in 2003]. Michel Oksenberg said that the present leadership reached an agreement in 1992 that they would limit themselves to two terms in power. However, much like members of the U.S. Congress who pledged to limit their terms, several Chinese leaders are having second thoughts about stepping down, he said.

Mr. Oksenberg said he sees clear signs that Jiang Zemin is attempting to build a cult of personality. As an example, he cited the growing number of billboards along Chinese roads depicting Jiang’s image along with that of former paramount leaders Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. According to Mr. Oksenberg, although Jiang appears to have designated Vice President Hu Jintao as his successor [Hu was promoted to vice-chairman of the party’s powerful Central Military Commission last year] there are questions whether Jiang has the authority to insure a smooth succession. Mr. Oksenberg predicted that Jiang Zemin would continue to stay in power "in some form" past the 2002 16^th Party Congress meeting and the 2003 10^th National People’s Congress, which will select the next state president and premier.

Civil-Military Relations

China’s People’s Liberation Army has acquired a more focused mandate to defend the PRC’s claims to Taiwan, Mr. Oksenberg said. But, at the same time, he explained, China’s leadership is demanding that the PLA withdraw from non-military business activities, which the army has done to supplement its budget. The weak Chinese taxation system, however, simply does not generate enough revenue to allow the government to give the military the funds needed to modernize, according to Mr. Oksenberg. The result, he said, is a great deal of bargaining between civilian and military rulers over budget resources.

Social Stability

Although there is no excuse for delaying political reform, Mr. Oksenberg argued, outside observers must appreciate the tremendous stress Chinese society is under. The leaders are afraid and do not know how to cope with the introduction of new social and economic developments—such as better communication and mobility within China—that are outside the party’s control. "Society is dramatically changing," Mr. Paal added, "[but] the political system has not found a way to reflect those changes. So what does [the leadership] do? It simply crushes any organized opposition." Both cited the party’s nine-month-long crackdown on the Falungong meditation sect as an example of the regime’s insecurity. If the Taiwan situation were calmer, Mr. Paal argued, then perhaps the leadership would feel more secure about political reform.

The Economy

Although Westerners tend to focus on China’s weak economy as the key problem facing Beijing, Mr. Oksenberg contended that the economy actually falls behind the above issues in importance. Both Mr. Paal and Mr. Oksenberg characterized China’s decision to join the WTO not as a bold political move but rather as the only viable option if China is to survive in a globalized economy. The only alternative to globalization, Mr. Paal said, is stagnation, higher unemployment, and an overall failure to develop economically.

China’s leaders, Mr. Oksenberg said, are responding to the current issues by putting processes into place that will take a long time to implement and banking on the outside world to help them "muddle through." "It’s not a leadership adrift," Mr. Oksenberg concluded, "it’s a leadership that is barely keeping afloat, bobbing among the waves, and slowly being pushed by the tide."

This Program Brief was prepared by Nixon Center Assistant Director Greg May and Program Assistant Ryan McFarland.