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The Nixon Center, Washington, DC
September 26, 2000

The question is not whether Islam will see a revival in Central Asia, but rather what kind of Islam it will be, said Dr. Roald Sagdeev, co-editor of Islam and Central Asia: An Enduring Legacy or an Evolving Conflict? and Distinguished Professor of Physics at the University of Maryland. Five of the contributing authors, including co-editor Susan Eisenhower, who is the CPSS Chair and a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at The Nixon Center, gathered to announce the publication of the book and to discuss the topics it addresses at The Nixon Center on September 26.

Roald Sagdeev said that the book assesses whether the Islam that has been reborn in Central Asia is the Islam that has dominated the region historically, or whether it is a more radical form of highly politicized, militant Islam. Troubling events indicate some movement toward the latter, specifically the events that have involved fighting between Kyrgyz government troops and Islamic militants from Uzbekistan this last spring, which left up to 95 dead.

Shireen T. Hunter, Director of Islamic Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Abdumannob Polat, Chairman of the Human Rights Society of Uzbekistan, and Roustem Safronov, special correspondent in the US for Novaya Gazeta, who contributed chapters to the book, agreed that this rebirth has been in part a response to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. During Soviet times, Moscow tried unsuccessfully, through indoctrination and religious persecution, to exterminate the deep roots that Islam had in Central Asia.

Influences on the Rebirth

The participants all agreed that one must go beyond simplified models of Islam to identify what the causes and character of contemporary Islam in Central Asia are. Abdumannob Polat argued that actions on an individual level have played a significant role, especially in Uzbekistan. He noted that President Islam Karimov has taken a "strong hand, strong rule" approach to governing, as evidenced by his outlawing of all radical political and religious movements in 1992. Mr. Polat concluded that Karimov is therefore partially responsible for the rise in militant Islam because he helped drive non-militant Islamic radicals underground, leaving them no other outlet for expressing their views.

Shireen Hunter emphasized the importance of external influences on the development of Islam in Central Asia, noting how expectations in 1991 that Iran would heavily influence this development have proven incorrect. Despite talk of Central Asian countries adopting an Iranian model of Islam, "Islamic ideology and the Islamic factor have played a surprisingly negligible role in determining Iran’s policy toward the former Soviet south." Hunter instead asserted that one must look at more than just basic Islamic models. Analysts must examine how Western policies, such as the US policy of isolating Iran, have actively discouraged ties between Iran and the states in Central Asia, as well as how other countries such as Turkey have played a role in influencing the rebirth of Islam in Central Asia.

The panelists noted that one country that has conspicuously lacked an Islamic rebirth is Turkmenistan. Roustem Safronov pointed out that Turkmenistan has not yet had to deal with the problem of radical, militant Islam because President Saparmurad Niyazov has kept a tight grip on his country’s affairs. Mr. Safronov acknowledged that people could eventually become disillusioned with Niyazov and that Turkmenistan could experience a radical, militant Islamic uprising, but nothing is certain. He, therefore, argued that Turkmenistan’s significance lies in its potential to either validate or refute the various theories on developments in Central Asia.

The Taliban

All of the authors agreed that it is essential to understand the issue of the Taliban in Afghanistan in order to gain a more complete understanding of how Islam will affect the regional dynamic in Central Asia. Dr. Sagdeev pointed out that the issue has a great deal of contemporary relevance with the recent contact made between the Taliban and the French Foreign Ministry. The opening of such channels would have profound implications for Central Asian governments, Western governments, and the multitude of oil companies interested in developing regional oil reserves. While the panelists disagreed on how countries in the West should approach relations with the Taliban, there was a consensus that this issue is worthy of more attention than it is currently receiving.

What is next?

The future of Central Asia is difficult to predict, but what is certain is that Islam will play a central role in determining what that future, whatever it happens to be. The panelists acknowledged that governments in Central Asia walk a fine line between reform and maintaining stability when dealing with the issue of Islamic revival. Consequently, so do Western governments seeking to engage the region. When asked about how the next generation fits into the future of these Central Asian countries, Dr. Sagdeev explained that policy-makers in the West face the question of whether to encourage reformists to oppose hard-liners like Karimov: "These young reformers risk being crushed. The trouble is determining whether the West should encourage them to act now or to wait in the bushes for the right moment to act some time in the future." One risk that is always present in any course of action that the West takes concerns the possibility of a general regional destabilization. Timing is the key to determining when and how the West should support attempts at reform.

Ms. Hunter asserted that the one option not available to the West is neglect: "we must remain much more alert and much more activist in the Central Asian corridor." This means paying consistent attention to issues over longer periods of time instead of scrambling to explain situations in the wake of periodic, dramatic events. For example, in response to a question about the role of China in Central Asia, Ms. Eisenhower made the point that while China does not have any immediate interest in the region, immigration from China in to eastern Central Asian countries continues to increase. This will give China, at the very least, a de facto interest in what is happening to the countries where its citizens are residing. Consequently, it could create potential problems in the future.

The Central Asian states are destined to play an important role in the twenty-first century even if they are not at the center of Western foreign policies. They will not only be major suppliers of strategic resources like gas and oil, but will continue to exist in a geographically strategic area between China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and a number of major Islamic countries. As Dr. Sagdeev noted, "that is why the outcome of the competition for the souls of Central Asians is so important."

This Nixon Center Program Brief was prepared by Tyler Nottberg