“Turkey,
Iraq, and the United States: Getting the Post-War Situation Right”
A
discussion with Cengiz Candar, Senior Columnist and CNN-Turk political analyst
and Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow at Hoover Institution
May
15, 2003
The Nixon Center, Washington DC
Establishing
security and democracy in Iraq and bilateral relations with democratic Turkey
were the subjects of discussion at a Nixon Center afternoon meeting. Larry
Diamond, senior fellow at Hoover Institution emphasized the importance of
sequencing and proposed federalism. Political columnist Cengiz Candar evaluated
Turkish-American relations following the “political earthquake” his
interview with Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz created. Zeyno Baran,
Director of International Security and Energy Programs, chaired the meeting.
“If
we don’t get security, we don’t get democracy”
Larry
Diamond argued that in order to have a democratic state, first there has to be a
state with monopoly over the means of violence. He noted that in post–Taliban
Afghanistan and now in post-war Iraq what we see is political vacuum, which is
filled by groups with guns.
Diamond
said that “The United States has both a moral and political obligation to
Iraq” and suggested that the US needs to put more troops on the ground to help
create and sustain a viable state there. To
help create and sustain a viable state in Iraq, the US needs to put more troops
on the ground. This is how mischief
from the Iranians and Ba'ath Party officials can be prevented.
Policing is also an urgent priority, he argued, and suggested “One
possible interim arrangement would be to construct an international police
authority drawn largely from soldiers recruited for this purpose from Arab
states sympathetic to the mission of Iraqi post-war reconstruction.”
He
also underlined the importance of establishing US legitimacy in the eyes of the
Iraqis and the international community. The US cannot bear the financial cost of
this mission alone and NATO would be the right address to internationalize the
effort.
There
is an urgent need for “de-Saddamization” and “de-Baathification,” he
argued, which would include arrests of senior figures responsible for the
political crimes of Saddam’s regime and the exclusion from post-war governance
and politics those who were supporters of the regime. Diamond stated,
“Democracy threatened by anti-democratic actors can and should defend
itself.”
“Political
sequencing is the only hope for democracy in Arab world”
On
the political side, Diamond suggested consultations and the participation of the
Iraqis in an interim government. At the same time, he said, “National
political elections should not take place for at least two years to create
breathing space for transition.” Sequencing is important so that proper
institutions can be in place and there is time for political parties to form, he
said. Otherwise, he argued, groups like the religious Shiites that will be best
positioned to take advantage of the political vacuum. They have a rigid
hierarchical ideology that enabled them to survive the authoritarian regime and
in the short term will remain the best organized groups.
Diamond
also made some suggestions about the structure of the future Iraqi government.
In his view, territorial federalism would be a good option. In this kind
of federalism, “limited but significant power would have to be retained by the
center, along with strong constitutional provisions against secession, if this
formula is to be accepted by Turkey and other neighboring states.”
He
argued that managing Iraq’s pluralism is a big challenge and “proportional
representation in small-sized districts, or an Australian-style system of
alternative voting” might be good options as they both “induce the formation
of broad, multi-ethnic parties that would campaign nationwide and thus slowly
transcend the current religious and ethnic divisions in the country.”
There
is also need for the establishment of political order and institutions to
protect the rule of law--institutions such as an audit commission, a human
rights commission, an ombudsman’s office, a counter-corruption commission and
an electoral commission. The US can also train journalists. It would take at
about five years to have the right conditions for multi-party elections, and
sequencing is the only way to ensure the Iraqi leadership will not be taken over
by an ideological party, Diamond stated.
“Wolfowitz’s
comments created a political earthquake in Turkey”
According
to Cengiz Candar, his interview for CNN Turk with Paul Wolfowitz has become a
key milestone in Turkish-American relations. The most important aspect of the
interview was that Wolfowitz became the first Pentagon official to openly and
publicly criticize the Turkish military. This, Candar argued, signaled that
“Wolfowitz removed the Pentagon’s unreserved support for the Turkish
military.”
He
stated that Wolfowitz’s comments provoked a hostile reaction against
America’s perceived intervention in Turkish domestic affairs.
As
a result of its differences with the US, Turkey is now looking for new relations
to fill the vacuum. Candar suggested that Turkey could move toward an axis with
Syria and Iran to prevent the emergence of an independent or semi-independent
Kurdish state. He observed that there is also rapprochement with France and the
EU, which could be another opening for Turkey.
The
triangular relation between U.S, Iraq and Turkey
According
to Candar, the exercise of democracy in Iraq will be important for the future of
US-Turkey relations as well. “Bilateral relations will be measured by how
Turkey will cooperate with the US on Iraq,” he asserted.
The
US has two approaches to Turkish democracy and whether it can be a model for
Iraq, Candar argued. One approach is outlined by Noah Feldman, the author of
“After Jihad: America and the struggle for democracy” who is critical of the
strong, secular Kemalist tradition in Turkey.
The second one is from Bernard Lewis, who Candar described as “a guru
for Pentagon civilians and the Turkish military.” According to Candar, Lewis
argues that Kemalism is what keeps Turkey as the only Muslim functioning
democracy in the region. Nevertheless,
he said, they both agree that “Turkey is the blueprint for the democracy in
Iraq.”
This
Program Brief was prepared by Nixon Center International Security and Energy
Programs Intern Yasemin Sener
