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“Stability
in
Georgia
: After the War in
Iraq
, Prior to Elections”
A discussion with Mikheil Saakashvili, Leader of the United National Movement
and Chairman of the Tbilisi City Council
April 14, 2003
The
Nixon
Center
,
Washington
D.C
Georgia
sided strongly with the
United States
on the
Iraq
war, demonstrating its firm commitment to the partnership. Now both the
government and the opposition parties in
Georgia
are trying to get
Washington
on their side ahead of the parliamentary elections in Fall 2003. At a
Nixon
Center
luncheon discussion, Mikheil Saakashvili, one of the leading opposition party
leaders, argued that President Eduard Shevardnadze has very little support in
the country, and added that “if
Washington
does not push for free and fair elections in
Georgia
, there will be chaos on the street.”
Shevardnadze
tired, opposition energetic and well organized
Mr.
Saakashvili acknowledged that Shevardnadze played a very important role in the
creation of the country’s basic legal framework, as well as a civil society
and an independent media. Over time, however, due to “institutional
corruption,” people saw few results from these reforms. Shevardnadze also ran
out of energy and is no longer capable of taking the necessary steps.
Therefore, Mr. Saakashvili argued, the upcoming elections are very important
because the new parliament will play a key role in the presidential elections in
2005. With likely success for the opposition parties, the next parliament will
want to curtail the president’s powers in favor or power sharing among
different political groups and a more effective parliament. There is also
increasing consensus, he stated, to have a strong prime minister that can be
changed more regularly.
There are four main opposition parties, he outlined. His own party, United
National Movement Party, currently has 16-20 percent of the votes, which make
the 30-35 percent of the population who intends to vote. He expects coalition
with the United Democrats under Zurab Zhvania, former speaker of the parliament.
Together they would represent the pro-Western, non-corrupt, reformist camp.
Mr. Saakashvili sees the main challenge from the populist Labor Party, which
recently won a court case against the American electricity utility company, AES.
The party promotes free electricity to Georgians and stood firmly against the
Iraq
war. Mr. Saakashvili argued that the government indirectly supports the Labor
Party.
The fourth major party, he said, is the New Rights, which was originally created
by the president and given access to public resources, and thus made a lot of
money. While he mentioned ongoing discussions of forming a tri-partite election
coalition to strengthen the pro-Western opposition to the government, he was
concerned that his voter base, along with Zhvania’s base, would be against
closer cooperation with the party of the “oligarchs.”
Need to
ensure free, fair elections
Mr.
Saakashvili stated that the government party got only 2 percent of the votes in
the June 2002 local elections, and the latest polls indicate even less support
from the public. Therefore, he argued, the government will have to reply heavily
on the votes of the ethnic minorities (mainly Azerbaijani and Armenian) and
internally displaced people because there groups can be manipulated more
effectively. He predicted that the government could also exploit the tense
situation in Abkhazia before the elections since the perception in
Georgia
is that “the key to the presidency is in Abkhazia.”
He was concerned that the government in despair might even use paramilitary
groups against the opposition. Ahead of the local elections, armed men with open
support from the government prevented Saakashvili from campaigning in
Western Georgia
. There are now up to 40 different such armed groups, he claimed, and urged the
US to send clear signals to the Georgian government that violence would not be
acceptable for Washington’s continued relations with Georgia.
Georgian opposition is closely working with the National Democratic Institute (NDI)
and the International Republican Institute (IRI) for election monitoring. Former
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright (now chairman of NDI) is expected to
travel to
Tbilisi
in June for the first preparatory mission, and again in September, he said. He
also mentioned that Senator John McCain would visit
Tbilisi
in the coming months to urge the government to hold free and fair elections.
Similarities
with
Serbia
Saakashvili
referred several times to
Serbia
in explaining developments in
Georgia
. He argued that, similar to the Serbian government, the Georgian government was
“criminalized at many levels.” There also has been the formation of peaceful
student and opposition movements like the ones that succeeded against the
Milosevic government. “Like in
Serbia
in 1996, the church can play a huge role in reigning in violence because it
enjoys moral authority,” he argued.
Urging immediate reforms, he said that so far he was a “successful version of
Djindjic.” While Djindjic failed to deliver as mayor, Saakashvili claimed, he
has already increased pensions and undertaken important infrastructure projects.
(The Serbian reformist Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic was assassinated on March
12)
Relations
with
Russia
will remain tense
According
to Saakashvili, Russian-Georgina relations are going to remain tense because
both are in a pre-election mode. He claimed for Russians, “Shevardnadze in
many ways is equivalent to what Saddam Hussein has to represent for the
US
public opinion.” Public polls in
Russia
indicate many Russians consider Georgians as an enemy, and Georgians think the
same about the Russians, he observed.
He argued that the
St. Petersburg
group was less nationalistic than the
Moscow
group in
Russia
. Even if they were to win in the elections, he still did not expect progress in
bilateral relations, especially in Abkhazia, in the short term.
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