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In preparation for the first meeting between U.S. Secretary of State
Colin Powell and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov in Cairo on
Saturday, the United States would be well served to make fundamental
changes in its approach to Russia. The new U.S. administration must
resist the temptation of inertia in dealing with Moscow and break
decisively from the failed policies of its predecessor.
The
first step is to recognize that Russia's post-Cold War transition is
over. This does not mean that Russia will cease to evolve — but it
does mean that the years of radical transformation have come to an
end. The Untied States must therefore comprehensively redefine its
interests and priorities with respect to Russia; policies geared
toward a nation in transition are simply no longer appropriate.
Developing
a hierarchy of U.S. interests is also essential. Former U.S.
President Bill Clinton's administration effectively identified a
range of U.S. interests vis-a-vis Russia but largely failed to
establish meaningful priorities. The result was a policy more or
less blind to the trade-offs among competing U.S. objectives and
constant pressure on Russian officials on a laundry list of issues.
This had the effect of irritating Russian leaders without winning
their cooperation on the issues most important to the United States.
When
the Bush administration establishes priorities — such as national
missile defense to protect Americans against a limited ballistic
missile attack — it should be very determined in advancing them
regardless of Russian opposition. Nevertheless — taking into
account that the United States has not yet developed a workable
technology for NMD and that it cannot affect Russia's nuclear force
for a decade or two — there is no reason to allow the issue to
provoke a crisis in relations with Moscow at this time. Once Russia
accepts that NMD will be deployed eventually, the United States can
likely accommodate its legitimate concerns through creative
diplomacy. At the same time, the United States should be prepared to
be flexible on matters of lesser priority to us.
In
operational terms, the United States should cut back dramatically
its involvement in Russian domestic politics and other internal
matters. It is by now widely recognized that the Clinton
administration's love affair with the so-called radical reformers in
Yeltsin's various governments served primarily to discredit both
parties. As a result, the United States has lost considerable moral
and political standing, not to mention influence, within Russia.
Many
Russian commentators eagerly anticipate less U.S. involvement in
their country's internal affairs, which they see as typical of
Republican presidents. Some even seem to believe that the Bush
administration will essentially ignore developments in Chechnya,
limits on press freedoms or other troubling actions by the Russian
government. This is a serious mistake. Being less intrusive in
Russian affairs does not mean being less interested or less
concerned; rather, it means that the United States should work to
address its concerns outside the arena of Russian domestic politics.
Though this may result in less attention to many specific incidents,
the consequences of a pattern of undesirable behavior could be much
more severe.
The
United States must also work to reestablish mutual respect in the
U.S.-Russian relationship. This has two components: making clear to
the Kremlin how the United States defines its interests and what
steps Washington will take to advance them, and seeking to
understand legitimate Russian interests and to respect them when
they do not conflict with our own. More clarity about U.S. interests
and priorities could help to avoid misunderstanding and limit
Russian behavior of concern to the United States. At a minimum, it
would ensure that Moscow understands the potential consequences of
ignoring U.S. preferences.
On
the other hand, showing greater respect for legitimate Russian
interests should to some degree address Russian resentment of some
U.S. international behavior and would create a much greater
"upside" for Russia in its relations with the United
States. This approach would show Moscow that it could reap tangible
benefits from cooperation on issues important to the United States.
Iran
is undeniably one of the United States' top priorities in this
regard; Russian assistance to Tehran's efforts to develop nuclear
weapons and long-range missiles presents a direct threat to vital
U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf and beyond. Continued assistance
to these Iranian programs, whether officially sanctioned or not,
should be a "deal breaker" in the U.S.-Russian
relationship.
The
United States should be somewhat more flexible in other areas, such
as Russia's southern frontier, where many Russians have been deeply
concerned by perceived U.S. efforts to exclude Moscow from the
region or redefine it as a U.S. sphere of influence.
Russian
interests in the former Soviet states of Central Asia are clearly
quite significant; instability in the region could directly threaten
Russian security. In the United States, the maximum result of a
crisis in Central Asia would likely be (slightly) higher energy
prices and a few back-page newspaper stories. The United States
should maintain friendly relations with Central Asian states — and
should deter Russian expansionism at their expense — but should
generally acknowledge Moscow's legitimate interests in the region.
Finally,
the United States must learn to treat Russia like a normal country.
This means communicating clearly to Russian leaders that their
country's role in the international system will depend primarily on
Russian internal and external behavior rather than its status as a
former superpower. More specifically, it means that Russia will not
be able to play a genuinely prominent role in international affairs
without developing its economy and earning international respect for
its conduct. The Clinton administration tried to give Russia such a
role — for example, through pressing for largely symbolic Russian
membership in the G-7, but was unsuccessful. Today, Russia's
standing has more to do with the trouble it could cause than the
contributions it can make.
This
is the context in which troubling internal Russian developments must
be addressed. Rather than lobbying on behalf of particular Russian
factions or repeating moralistic criticisms of Russian policies, the
United States should simply make clear that Russia must act like a
serious country if it wants to be treated as such — not only by
the United States and other governments but by foreign investors as
well. Serious countries do not kill thousands of their own citizens
in "anti-terrorist operations," tolerate massive
corruption and capital flight, refuse to honor their debts or strive
to eliminate public opposition to their governments. Once this
message has been delivered clearly and forcefully, governments,
businesspeople and others should draw their own conclusions about
Russian behavior and act accordingly. Moscow should then be left to
make its own decisions and live with the consequences.
A
sustainable, bipartisan policy based on these three principles would
avoid needless misunderstandings between Washington and Moscow by
helping each country to understand the other's interests and
priorities. It would also extricate the United States from the swamp
of Russian domestic politics while imposing real costs on Russia for
troubling internal policies. Perhaps most important, however, by
acknowledging Moscow's interests, it would finally create a basis
for a win-win relationship between Russia and the United States.
Disagreements with Moscow are probably inevitable, but — with the
right policy — conflict is not.
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