AMERICA VIEWS CHINA’S RISING 2004*

Two Thousand and Four has been a year about which future historians will say at least six developments held special meaning for the future. These developments encompass the realms of popular perception in the United States, leadership change in America and China, Chinese foreign policy, global energy issues, Sino-Japanese ties, and Taiwan.

To start, 2004 was a tipping-point year in which discussion in America shifted from a debate about whether or not China would be a global power with comprehensive strength, to a debate over what the implications of China’s success would be.  And, 2004 was a tipping point in another respect--China’s growing strength came to be viewed somewhat less in military terms than competition in the realm of economics and ideas.  In other words, Americans came to see China somewhat more as an economic and intellectual challenge with which they should productively compete rather than a military adversary with which counterproductive struggle was likely, much less inevitable.  This development should encourage the United States to refocus some of its attentions on Asia and to reform itself.  Put simply, China’s reforms are necessitating reforms in the United States (such as increasing the national savings rate and strengthening education) and changes in U.S. foreign policy.  America must improve its competitive position.

Second, the year 2004 also was important in both our societies because of leadership developments.  In the United States, President Bush was reelected by a greater margin than many analysts had anticipated.  Understandably, the president has interpreted his victory as general endorsement of his past policies.  Policies about which China has had some reservations, therefore, are likely to continue.  At the same time, the President’s commitment to sound, cooperative relations with China also will persist, given that Sino-American ties were a relative success in the first term and given the strategic imperative for both Beijing and Washington to cooperate. 

As for China, the smooth leadership transition moved further forward in 2004, giving the outside world greater confidence that the basic orientation of China’s evolution will continue.  While Beijing and Washington each have their complaints about the other, neither is likely to let its disagreements with the other overwhelm the basic cooperation.

Third, in 2004 China’s diplomacy seemingly became more outward focused, multilateral, and truly global.  This posture was evidenced in a number of ways.  Americans were somewhat surprised, for example, to find China signing some of the biggest trade deals ever in Latin America; Lenovo (Legend Computer) buying IBM’s PC operations; and, Shanghai Auto Works buying foreign automobile manufacturing capacity abroad.  Likewise, the degree to which the PRC has promoted regional economic integration through the ASEAN plus 3 mechanism and other proposed free trade arrangements requires the United States to think about how to become more proactive in shaping, with China, the economic future of the Asia-Pacific.

Fourth, 2004 will go down as the year in which the world clearly perceived what the implications of China’s rise would be for the global energy situation.  If the United States and China are to avoid frictions over energy policy in its many aspects, our two countries (and the rest of the world) must develop cooperative energy strategies that guarantee everyone equitable and secure access to supplies.  This requires the cooperative development of energy security structures, conservation strategies, and new technologies.

Fifth, the year ended with the people of Taiwan, in their legislative elections, deciding to maintain a balance of power between their executive and legislative branches that is more conducive to stability across the Strait.  The question is, can both sides of the Strait seize this opportunity to foster increased cross-Strait interaction and stability?

And sixth, as Americans look westward toward East Asia, this year’s Sino-Japanese frictions over history, security, and offshore claims are disquieting.  A principal lesson of World War II was that regional peace requires the cooperation of China, Japan, and the United States.

These six developments suggest the outlines of an agenda for U.S.-China relations for the next several years:  A) Both Beijing and Washington need to initiate and sustain a high-level strategic dialogue devoted to issues such as: building post-cold war security structures in Asia; devising energy structures that are reassuring to all; and, preventing the further breakdown of the regional non-proliferation regime and the development of a regional arms race.  In addition to high-level strategic dialogue, military-to-military exchanges need to be accelerated.  B) All sides need to foster cooperation among Japan, China, and the United States because no major problem in the region can be effectively addressed without the joint efforts of these three parties.  C) And finally, as regional economic integration occurs, it should include the principal economies in the region, one of which is the United States.

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*David M. Lampton is Dean of Faculty and Director of China Studies at Johns Hopkins-SAIS and Director of Chinese Studies at The Nixon Center. The author of Same Bed, Different Dreams, Dr. Lampton is former President of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations.