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"Assessing the US-China Summit and Bilateral Ties."

A Discussion with Ambassadors James Lilley and Winston Lord

November 8, 2002

The Nixon Center, Washington, D.C.

Two of America’s premier diplomats, former U.S. Ambassadors James Lilley and Winston Lord, assessed the state of US-China relations and the Bush-Jiang Crawford Summit at a recent breakfast discussion at The Nixon Center. Ambassador James Lilley, a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Ambassador Winston Lord, currently the co-chairman of the International Rescue Committee, also touched on the implications of the week’s events: the US elections, the UN Security Council’s impending vote on the resolution on Iraqi weapons inspections, and the inauguration of the 16^th Party Congress in China. David M. Lampton, Director of China Studies at The Nixon Center, moderated the discussion.

Ambassador Lord began the discussion by stating, "I think the Crawford Summit was doomed to succeed, and indeed it was successful." Through seven US Presidents and four generations of Chinese leaders, US-China relations have been a "blend of cooperation and confrontation, navigating between a floor of enmity and a ceiling of partnership." Although Lord predicted that the relationship would remain turbulent in the future, he called for patience and for China-watchers and policymakers to be "neither too gloomy when things look bad, nor too euphoric when things look good."

Even though the United States has increased US deployments around China’s periphery, and expressed a more conciliatory tone towards Taiwan, China has adjusted its usual rhetoric aimed at the United States’ dominant role in the world. Ambassador Lord pointed to China’s level of cooperation in the fight against terrorism, citing their willingness to share intelligence, to act as a broker with Pakistan, to freeze financial flows, and to allow an FBI agent to be stationed in the American Embassy. China has also taken various other measures to help the US, such as publishing export control lists of dual-use technologies and chemical and biological weapons. Lord also, correctly, predicted that despite the fact that China had been "very clever in hiding behind the Russians and French and dragging out this process," the country would vote for the UN resolution that came to the table later that day.

Ambassador Lord then addressed two other concerns for policymakers: North Korea and human rights. Regarding North Korea, he claimed that the US and China do not want North Korea to develop or obtain nuclear weapons. On human rights, traditionally a major source of conflict and tension in the US-China relationship, Lord noted some small concessions made by the Chinese. Chinese officials recently released some political prisoners, including a number of prominent Tibetans. In addition, representatives of the Dalai Lama recently visited China.

According to Ambassador Lord, due to the war on terrorism concern over China as a potential threat has "faded to the background" and as a result the United States is also making an effort to better relations. Lord explained the significance of President Bush’s two trips to China, the Crawford Summit, and the increasing number of visits by US officials and labeling Muslim separatists in Xinjiang as a terrorist group. President Bush also made an important public gesture when he essentially scolded Chen Shui-Bian for his rather forceful remarks a few months ago concerning Taiwan’s status by reiterating that the US does not support Taiwanese independence, Lord said.

Efforts by both nations in the days leading up to the Crawford Summit illustrate why the summit was "doomed to succeed." According to Ambassador Lord, China has "matured" diplomatically and no longer relies on what Lord referred to as "saber-rattling." This change is evident in China’s dealings with Taiwan and the United Nations, in negotiating agreements such as the free trade arrangements with South East Asia, and in its measures to help its world image using public relations- notably, releasing some prisoners. Lord asserted, "China is a more self-confident world player, beginning to identify itself as a major power instead of a developing power."

In addition, Ambassador Lord stressed that Jiang Zemin sees positive US-Chinese relations as an important part of his legacy. Since the inauguration of the 16^th Party Congress closely followed the Crawford Summit, Jiang wanted a positive summit and relations to frame the transition. Jiang and other Party leaders realize the need for internal stability during the transition, and much of that depends on economic stability and improvement. Thus, Lord concluded that both the need for US trade investment and technology and the recognition that "the US is an overwhelming superpower that can not be challenged for the time-being."

For the United States, recent efforts toward more positive relations are fueled by the war on terrorism, Iraq and national security concerns. According to Lord, the US "needs and appreciates Chinese help on these issues."

Accordingly, the summit went as planned, and there was general agreement on key issues. On North Korea, each party desires a nuclear-free Koran peninsula. Regarding Iraq, the Chinese emphasized the need for compliance with UN Security Council resolutions, and the two sides talked of cooperation against global terrorism. An interesting aspect of the summit, noted Lord, came on the topic of autonomy for Hong Kong citizens.

In conclusion, Lord reminded the audience once again not to be over-enthusiastic during this present positive phase of US-China relations. He believes bilateral relations remain positive for the time being, when predicting the future he recognizes the inevitable tension that exists whenever an emerging power confronts the current superpower. In the current environment, Lord pointed to specific factors of the post-9/11 world that indicate future tension. China has been watching closely the expansion of NATO and improved US relations with neighbors like Russia, Japan, and India. The US, meanwhile, remains wary of China asserting itself as an economic power, and many in US foreign policy circles label China as a "looming threat." The key, Lord asserts, could be China’s development of political reforms to support its economic changes.

Ambassador James Lilley began his remarks by reiterating what he felt was the key statement to come out of the Crawford Summit: China does not want nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula. Ambassador Lilley felt the statement sent a positive message to the North Koreans. Lilley then examined the impact of the revelation of North Korea’s uranium enrichment project, stating that he believes the project genuinely caught the Chinese by surprise, thereby making it perhaps an opportune time for the US to engage China in a dialogue on North Korea. Lilley asserted, however, that although China certainly does not want war on the peninsula, the Chinese would not tolerate a united Korea under Seoul.

Lilley then discussed the importance of the Party Congress meetings, which he feels tends to be overlooked. He stated that one merely needs to look back at the history of Party meetings to trace the evolution of Chinese policy. He then illustrated this by tracing the impact of the past Congresses on Chinese policy changes. Lilley then considered the 16^th Party Congress, affirming its important role. Remarking that although we can only speculate about the 16^th Party Congress, he surmised that the Standing Committee is the primary descision making body. He continued that most people feel that the 16^th Party Congress will be fairly benign, with no significant change in policy, and that a new Committee of Elders will form. This Committee of Elders will probably be as powerful as the one during the time of Zhou Enlai, which is a noted difference from the ineffective Committee of Elders in place under Jiang Zemin.

Lilley remarked that the one "big question" that China-watchers hope to answer is: Who is going to handle the American account? In the early 1970’s and late 1980’s the personal relationships on both sides helped to strengthen ties. Relationships such as Nixon and Mao, Kissinger and Zhou, and later Bush Sr. and Deng helped the two countries work through tough times. He remarked that Qian Qichen, who was Vice Premier, might be one of a few leaders prepared to continue work with the United States.

Ambassador Lilley agreed with Ambassador Lord that the trend in US-China relations at the present moment is very favorable, but warned of the tensions that might arise over strategic concerns. China remains concerned about United States’ military might, of which the Seventh Fleet acts as a constant reminder. Lilley also identified US involvement in Korea and Southeast Asia as causes of Chinese concern. Lilley warned that incidences like the EP3 collision, "will be nothing but trouble."

On North Korean relations, Ambassador Lilley explained that, "the situation may well be solved by economic cooperation," and that, "certainly economic cooperation is leverage that the [United States] has over North Korea." Lilley continued that mutually beneficial economic relations could soothe other areas of tension. Possible conflicts in the East China Sea, with Japan for example, often come about over exploratory drilling endeavors and the resulting overflights. Lilley feels, however, that such confrontations with Japan will become fewer in the future. He also asserted that improved relations across the Taiwan Straits depend on economic cooperation. He also noted that the Chinese started a program to push for free-trade links with Taiwan. These changes in the substance of the relations remain dominant and important." according to Lilley, "that it is almost incidental to whether direct talks will actually take place."

Lilley also commented on China’s push for improved economic relations with ASEAN nations. In addition, Lilley believes that US presence in SE Asia, though wanted and necessary, should act only as "the baseball bat in the corner," and not be used directly in relations with China.

Ambassador Lilley concluded by stating that although he spoke of many positive improvements in US-China relations, one must be wary of the "desperate need of the Party to retain power," and the consequences that could have in the coming years.

Moderator David M. Lampton concluded the event with several comments. He touched upon the question of who will handle the American account, raised by Ambassador Lilley. He recognized that Jiang Zemin will retain a significant amount of power, and that this bodes well for stabilizing the US-China relationship. He also agreed that if Qian Qichen, "took over the American account" would be a positive for the bilateral relationship. Lampton also named two other individuals well-known to Americans, Wu Yi, who heads the Foreign Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, and Li Zhaoxing, the former Ambassador to the United States, both have a good network of relationship in the US.

Secondly, Dr. Lampton stated that although the Crawford meeting was relatively short and of modicum significance, the negotiations that took place between the bureaucracies in the months leading up to the summit led to more notable results. During these talks, Dr. Lampton believes that China made the decision to stop weapons and weapon’s technology distribution because it does not help China. Thus, China has issued in the past two months, three sets of export controls on weapon’s technology that the United States has been pushing for the past two years.

Dr. Lampton also commented on the "encirclement problem" for China, described earlier by Ambassador Lord as China’s fear of its deteriorating strategic position as the US forges relationships with its neighbors. Although Dr. Lampton concedes that it certainly concerns some in China’s military circles, he has found through various primary sources that many in China favorably view the country’s strategic position in the post-9/11 world. He focused on the change in relations with the Bush Administration, from China as a pure competitor and rival looming in the background to US strategic attention focused almost exclusively elsewhere. Thus, the Chinese can now freely pursue domestic policies and focus internally.

This program brief was prepared by Nixon Center Intern Jodi Rosenstein.