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"Does a New Generation of Chinese Leaders Mean New Policy?"

A luncheon Discussion with Dr. Cheng Li

October 23, 2002
The Nixon Center, Washington, DC

The new generation of Chinese leaders’ policy goals will coincide with American interests more then any group of Chinese leaders before or after. Dr. Cheng Li, a Professor of Government at Hamilton College and Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, espoused this optimistic view of the Chinese leadership succession. Dr. Li is a leading expert on the Fourth Generation of Chinese leadership and is the author of the book, China’s Leaders: The New Generation. David M. Lampton, Director of Chinese Studies at The Nixon Center, moderated the event.

Dr. Li began his remarks by examining the rumors currently surrounding the Chinese leadership transition and more specifically, President Jiang Zemin’s future role. He discounts the rumors that Jiang will try to repeat what Deng Xiaoping did by relinquishing formal positions of power while exerting enormous influence from behind the scenes. Dr. Li contends that Jiang’s stature is not that of Deng’s and in his own interest he will choose the path of retirement instead of clinging to power in his later years. Beginning at the 16^th Chinese Communist Party Congress scheduled to take place early this month, Dr. Li insists, Jiang will formally transfer power to Hu Jintao and within six months to two years the new leadership will be firmly in place.

In Dr. Li’s view, China currently faces major contradictions. The great strides that China has made in recent history are tempered by the enormous challenges that have also arisen. For example, in just the past two years, China has won the right to host the 2008 Olympic games, hosted a successful Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Shanghai, completed its accession to the World Trade Association (WTO) and the national soccer team played in its first ever World Cup. Unfortunately, Dr. Li insists, there are also negative issues that must be addressed. As China opened its economic system people began to acquire wealth; but these new opportunities also brought large disparities in income. China was transformed from one of the world’s most egalitarian countries to one of its least. The additional issues of rampant corruption, high unemployment, growing unrest in the countryside, degradation of ecological and environmental conditions, and chronic accidents (most notably coal mine accidents) have all put a strain on the country, Dr. Li said.

Second, Dr. Li believes the new leadership is well equipped with leadership skills to properly balance the contradictions mentioned above. Accession to the WTO has provided a unique set of circumstances. The same market reforms that will transform China’s economy into a more vibrant marketplace will also have devastating effects on vulnerable sectors of the economy and certain social groups. In order to modernize its economy, Dr. Li contends, China desperately needs to reform its state owned enterprises. Unfortunately, this reform will lead to massive layoffs and an adequate social safety net has yet to be established. Additionally, the CCP wants to make the bureaucracy more efficient, stamp out official corruption, and broaden the party base--- all without risking chaos, undermining national unity, or being seen as a party of the elite. Dr. Li maintains that the new generation has the skills and institutional memory to tackle such issues effectively.

The third issue is the characteristics of the new leaders. Dr. Li explained the impact of the Cultural Revolution on their lives. Those turbulent times put a permanent stamp on their characters resulting in "the least dogmatic, most diverse, and most cautious about coalition building among all the elite generations in the history of the CCP." According to Dr. Li, the majority of today’s leaders were "Red Guards," which, despite their initial ideological fanaticism, supplied them first-hand knowledge of the faults and limitations of Communism. As a result, the leaders have more interest in issues than dogma. Many such as Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao were "sent-down youths." Both Hu and Wen served in the poor inland province of Gansu. Dr. Li contends that these experiences have given the new leaders of China a healthy grasp of the "real China" and first hand knowledge of the disparity between the industrialized coastal areas and the backward inland regions.

Dr. Li’s believes a new generation of Chinese leadership will mean new policy. China’s new leaders are very different from their predecessors. These, "new leaders will make great efforts to fix the problems of their predecessors," he said. The increase of economic disparity between different groups, sectors, and regions has stained the Jiang administration. On the new leaders' agendas this problem will take top priority and the experience in inland regions of many of the new leaders will markedly influence policy.

Furthermore, the mandate of the fourth generation will be to accelerate political reform. According to Dr. Li, this will occur not because of a detection to democratic ideals or ideas, but because there is a strong fear that China will collapse the way the Soviet Union and other Communist and Leninist countries have over the past decade. In addition, Dr. Li claims that the move toward a more accountable government is spurred by several powerful developments. These include the existence of a sizable urban middle class, the emergence of real NGOs, the growing democratic consciousness of the Chinese people, experiments in local elections, a rapidly growing population of lawyers, the effect of political discourse on public dialogue, the commercialization of the media, and the diversification of information sources.

Based on political discourse, initiatives, and signals articulated by the new leaders and their think tanks, Dr. Li offered six future political reforms. First, intra-party democracy will be more effectively institutionalized. Second, division of decision making and policy implementation and supervision will be better defined. Third, provincial governments will have more say in the decision making process. Fourth, the law will be more clearly defined and implemented especially because some new leaders have received formal training in law and the social sciences. Fifth, the relationship among the state, party, and military will be better defined by the new leaders. Sixth, both the CCP’s legitimacy and transparency will continue to improve.

However, Dr. Li argued that the aim of these reforms is not a multi-party system, but intra-party democracy. The main factions are the inland/Hu Jintao faction and the coastal/Zeng Qinghong faction. These two factions represent the two top contenders for power, as well as different regional, social, and economic groups. "Inland/ Hu," for example, represents mostly poor and backward agricultural areas, while "coastal/Zeng" speaks for the urban middle class and more developed areas. It is between these two factions that power sharing must occur.

On the issue of China’s foreign policy, Dr. Li does not see any great changes. However he does believe that new leaders will make great efforts to improve China’s image within the international community. President Chen Shuibian of Taiwan has pointed out that a democratic Taiwan does not have much in common with an authoritarian China. Hence, the new generation will push political reform in order "to woo the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese." Moreover, a large number of incoming leaders have been trained in the West. The fact that they attended many of the same universities as their counterparts in Taiwan and in the United States, Dr. Li said, makes it difficult for them to criticize each other in ideological terms.

Dr. Li concluded by commenting on the implications of the leadership transition in China for American interests. He believes that the new leadership’s policy goals will converge with those of their U.S. counterparts. Neither the U.S. nor China wants another Mao Zedong. Both sides agree that societal chaos caused by a failed power transfer, societal breakdown as a result of economic disparity, and the emergence of a dominant military are to be avoided. Fortunately, Dr. Li does not see "radical or xenophobic" views among the new generation of Chinese leaders, as they generally lack ideological fervor, paranoia, and charisma. He recommends that the aforementioned characteristics of the new Chinese leaders should be encouraged and welcomed by the United States and that more frequent dialogue with China’s new leaders is needed.

This Program Brief was prepared by Nixon Center staff member Kelani C. Chan.