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"Israel's Security Dilemma"

A discussion with His Excellency, Daniel Ayalon
Israel’s Ambassador to the United States

October 2, 2002
The Nixon Center, Washington, DC

At a recent luncheon at The Nixon Center, Israel’s newly appointed Ambassador to the United States, His Excellency Daniel Ayalon, asserted that Israel wants peace with its Palestinian neighbors. Ayalon explained that despite Israeli efforts to improve relations, the Palestinian Authority continues to orchestrate terrorist activity. "Israel’s society is hurting," he said, but is strong in purpose and determined not to tremble. Moreover, Ayalon stressed that terrorism can be fought and quoted Winston Churchill’s famous statement that " …we are at the end of the beginning." Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Studies at The Nixon Center, moderated the discussion.

Ambassador Ayalon explained that Israel has made repeated attempts, through the Oslo Peace Accord and Camp David, to purse a peaceful relationship with the Palestinians. He added that Sharon and Arafat had spoken two times on the phone, the first at the time of Sharon’s election in February 2001 and the second in June of the same year. However, he said, there has been no change in Palestinian attitudes and actions. Ayalon made a clear distinction between Palestinian leadership and Palestinian civilians in this context and suggested that the current intifada (which by definition means a popular uprising) has been carefully "orchestrated" by Palestinian leadership. In fact, he added, 1 million of Israel’s 6.5 million citizens are "loyal and law abiding" Arabs who would like to live peacefully with other Israelis. In Ayalon’s view Palestinian Authority chairman Yasser Arafat and his advisors are single-handedly responsible for the tension that has occurred. He suggested that Arafat’s goal was to force Israel into a vulnerable position from which it would be forced to give in to the demands of the Palestinian Authority. However, he asserted, Palestinian civilians are beginning to "second guess" the Palestinian Authority. He offered three reasons for this. First, he said, the military response Israel has adopted to defend itself against suicide bombers and the "coalition of terror" has drastically reduced the frequency of suicide bombing. Second, the political support Israel has received from the U.S., which strongly advocates Israel’s right to self defense. Third, the Israeli Supreme Court ruling that allows Israel the right to expel anyone directly related to suicide bombing activity. Ayalon stated, "it is wrong to think that terrorism can not be fought."

In response to a question regarding Israel’s relationship with Yasser Arafat and the recent growth support for reform of the Palestinian leadership, Ayalon stated that Israel views Arafat as "irrelevant…we do not deal with him." Ayalon said that if Israel saw the Palestinian Authority as genuinely attempting reform, it would jump at the opportunity to engage Palestinian leaders. In his opinion, the Palestinians are not there yet. Ayalon also explained that Israeli efforts to combat terrorists are not intended to target Arafat, but instead to deal with those most directly responsible for terrorism. In any event, he said, "Arafat is on a slippery slope and sympathy is dissipating."

In response to a question regarding the expansion of settlements, Ayalon explained that efforts to control terrorist activity should be a main priority over dealing with settlements. He argued that the fact that the PLO was founded before 1967 and Israel’s administration of the territories suggests that the PLO was not originally concerned with this issue because it did not exist. He said that issue is terror. With regards to Israel’s plan to create a "security fence," Ayalon suggested that it is a tactical measure for defense and has no political implications for the long term borders of Israel.

When asked what would constitute a successful outcome in a potential war with Iraq, Ayalon explained that Israel has the same goals as the United States; namely a change of regime and disarmament in Iraq. Ayalon believes that the real challenge will come after the Iraqi regime is ousted. He suggested that the problem with the current Iraqi regime is a convergence of three elements: extreme ideology, terror, and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. He argued that the path to " long term stability is through democratization," and later added that " Iraq is not an Israeli problem but an international problem." He explained that Israel chooses to keep a "low profile" so as to not give Iraq a pretext to blame Israel for its own problems.

This Program Brief was prepared by Nixon Center Intern Mariam Moini.