At a recent breakfast briefing co-sponsored by The Nixon Center and The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), three experts on immigration issues agreed that liberalizing U.S. immigration policy towards Mexico could be a threat to American security, especially in the wake of the September 11^th attacks. The meeting featured a panel discussion with Steven Camarota, Director of Research at CIS, Robert Leiken, Nixon Center Guest Scholar and non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and George Grayson, Professor of Government at the College of William and Mary and Adjunct Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Mark Krikorian, Executive Director of CIS, moderated the discussion.

Steven Camarota

Dr. Camarota focused mainly on the economic impact of Mexican immigration on the U.S. economy. He argued that despite the fact that most native born Americans do not face much job competition from the influx of mostly unskilled Mexican immigrants because of their higher education levels, there is a significant portion of natives (approximately 13 million) who are in direct competition for jobs with Mexican immigrants, this has resulted in a 5% reduction in wages for the poorest 10% of the American workforce, which far outstrips the 0.2% decrease in prices for consumers. At the same time, impoverished immigrant households use social services at twice the rate of native-born Americans (31% versus 15%). Dr. Camarota points out that if illegal Mexican immigrants were given amnesty, as has been proposed by some members of both the U.S. and Mexican governments, the cost of public services will increase because as people attain legal status they will have access to these programs.

Dr. Camarota concluded by identifying some of the policy implications of his statistical analysis of the Mexican immigrant population. For example, he pointed out the need for improving the skills and education of legal Mexican immigrants and their children. This segment of the U.S. population is growing very quickly and helping them to move into the middle class will be beneficial to all. He also suggested that the U.S. government needs to figure out how to reduce illegal immigration, because additional unskilled labor does not benefit the U.S. economy.

Mr. Leiken, the author of "Enchilada Lite: A Post-9/11 Mexican Migration Agreement," which lays out a blueprint for immigration reform capable of passing the legislatures in both Mexico and the U.S., fears that currently neither America nor Mexico has the institutional capacity to carry out these reforms.

The Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) has long been notorious for mistakes and red tape, but never more so than after the September 11 attacks. A good example was the March 2002 discovery that the INS had issued student visa notifications to two of the dead hijackers who had trained at a Florida flight school. Moreover, since September 11, the INS has assumed considerably greater responsibility because of security concerns. Consequently, the proposals for a guest worker program and an amnesty program have all been put on the backburner or dismissed as imprudent for the current situation. But, the same logic applies to deportation or other large-scale efforts

Leiken stressed that he does not view Mexican immigrants as a direct danger to homeland security. The Muslim communities in Latin America are small and moderate. There are no demonstrated links between Al-Qaeda and Latin American guerilla or terrorist groups. However, the presence of a large illegal immigrant population does create a market for fraudulent documents and a network for smuggling people into the U.S. And illegal immigrants helped several of the 9/11 hijackers obtain driver’s licenses.

Mr. Leiken offered several policy suggestions. First, at the upcoming meeting between Presidents Bush and Fox, Bush should candidly explain why a comprehensive agreement with Mexico is currently not practical. Second, the U.S. should have the extension of the rule of law in Mexico as its most important foreign policy goal vis-à-vis Mexico. And finally, legal immigrants need to become more integrated into American society.

George Grayson

Professor Grayson focused on the impact of the Mexican-Guatemalan border, which he described as "a sieve that has been blasted by buckshot," on U.S. homeland security. That relatively undefended border is roughly 602 miles long and has about 200 clandestine crossing points where mostly Central or South American immigrants enter Mexico often hoping to reach the United States. According to Grayson, increasing numbers of Asians, Africans, and Middle Easterners are able to cross this border.

Grayson emphasized that the Fox administration does deserve some credit for its efforts to improve its presence at the southern Mexican border. Through one of these programs ten to twelve buses deliver illegal immigrants back to their home countries each day. Also the number of so called "Beta groups," which monitor and assist immigrants, has increased. However, he said, these efforts have are hindered by the monumental size of the undertaking, the lack of funds and staff, and the impact of corruption.

Finally, Professor Grayson addressed the issue of migrant workers. The Mexican government has been pursuing a guest worker program with the U.S. The Mexicans already have a guest worker program with the Guatemalans. In his view, this program is plagued by corruption and a lack of safeguards for the Guatemalan workers. Grayson points out that the Fox administration should reform this program before moving on to the initiatives it has suggested for an accord with the U.S. on immigration.